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25 July 2025,05:20
Daily Market Analysis
25 July 2025, 05:20
Key Takeaways:
*Alphabet led the charge, rising over 1% on strong quarterly results. Other tech giants—including Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon—also advanced
*Markets are increasingly pricing in a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, with a 25bps rate cut expected as early as September and as much as 100bps in cumulative easing by end-2025.
Market Summary:
The U.S. dollar snapped a four-day losing streak, rising 0.3% in the previous session and partially reversing Wall Street extended its record-breaking run as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched fresh all-time highs, propelled by a potent combination of strong corporate earnings and shifting monetary policy expectations. The bullish momentum reflects growing conviction among investors that the market has entered a favorable environment of easing inflation pressures and impending rate cuts.
Tech Titans Lead Charge
Alphabet spearheaded the advance with a 1% gain after delivering better-than-expected quarterly results, demonstrating resilient advertising revenue and cloud growth. The tech sector broadly participated in the rally, with Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon each climbing approximately 1% as investors continued rewarding megacap stocks with robust cash flows and AI-driven growth narratives. The Nasdaq-100’s outperformance suggests market leadership remains firmly in the hands of innovative, cash-rich technology firms.
Volatility Plummets as Confidence Builds
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sank to 16.50, marking its most subdued level since March and underscoring the market’s resurgent appetite for risk. This compression in expected volatility comes despite looming geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. election cycle, indicating traders are increasingly willing to look through near-term uncertainties amid solid earnings and macroeconomic fundamentals.
Fed Policy Winds Shift
Futures markets now price in near-certain odds of a September rate cut, with swaps reflecting expectations for a full percentage point of easing through 2025. This dovish repricing has acted as rocket fuel for equity valuations, particularly for growth stocks whose future cash flows benefit disproportionately from lower discount rates. The Fed’s perceived pivot from inflation fighters to growth supporters has effectively removed a major headwind that constrained markets through much of 2023.
As the earnings season progresses and key inflation data looms, the sustainability of this rally will hinge on whether corporate profits can validate stretched valuations and whether economic data cooperates with the Fed’s anticipated policy path. For now, the combination of strong tech earnings, benign volatility, and accommodative monetary expectations continues to create a goldilocks environment for risk assets.
The tech-heavy index continues to trade above its established uptrend support, reinforcing a bullish bias. In the latest session, the index broke decisively above its immediate resistance at the 23,270.00 level, underscoring the strength of its upward momentum.
Technical indicators support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded and is now hovering near the overbought threshold, signaling sustained buying pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing signs of a bullish crossover near the zero line, indicating that a fresh wave of upward momentum may be forming. Together, these signals suggest the index may extend its rally in the near term.
Resistance Levels: 23,430.00, 23,620.00
Support Levels: 23,140.00, 23,000.00
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