U.S. Inflation and Housing Data in Focus as Fed Patience Faces Test

The Week Ahead: Week of June 23, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The upcoming week features a dense lineup of high-impact U.S. economic data, with markets especially attentive to the May Core PCE Price Index—a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Also in focus are updates on durable goods orders, GDP revisions, home sales, and consumer confidence, all of which could feed into market expectations for a potential policy shift in the months ahead. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and mixed macro signals, traders will be watching for confirmation that inflation is cooling and that economic activity remains resilient enough to sustain a soft landing.

Key Events to Watch:

 U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Previous: 52.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of expansion in May, with the PMI at 52.0, marking its third consecutive month above the 50 threshold. However, any moderation in the June flash estimate could indicate renewed headwinds from global demand and higher-for-longer borrowing costs. A surprise downside miss could weigh on the dollar and risk sentiment.

Monday, June 23 – 16:45
U.S. S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)
Previous: 53.7 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The services sector remained robust in May, with a reading of 53.7 highlighting continued strength in consumer-facing industries. The June print will be key for gauging broader economic momentum. A decline below 53 could signal fading resilience, strengthening the case for Fed easing in the second half of the year.

Monday, June 23 – 17:00
U.S. Existing Home Sales (May)
Previous: 4.00M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Home sales remained subdued in April as high mortgage rates and affordability constraints curbed buyer activity. A flat or weaker reading in May could point to continued housing market stagnation and feed into broader concerns about U.S. consumer sentiment and wealth effects.

Tuesday, June 24 – 17:00
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
Previous: 98.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Consumer confidence dipped in May amid persistent inflation concerns and global geopolitical risks. Another soft reading in June would underscore waning household sentiment and spending capacity, potentially pressuring the Fed to reassess its higher-for-longer rate posture.

Wednesday, June 25 – 17:00
U.S. New Home Sales (May)
Previous: 743K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
New home sales surprised to the upside in April, signaling underlying strength despite tighter financial conditions. If May’s reading holds above 700K, it may suggest continued demand resilience. A sharp pullback, however, could reinforce concerns over the impact of elevated rates on housing activity.

Thursday, June 26 – 15:30
U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
Previous: -6.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Durable goods orders plunged in April, reflecting weaker demand for transportation equipment. A rebound in May would ease fears of a broader industrial slowdown. Conversely, another contraction could stoke growth concerns and reinforce dovish Fed expectations.

Thursday, June 26 – 15:30
U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Q1 Final)
Previous: -0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The second estimate showed a mild contraction in Q1, driven by weak inventories and exports. Markets will be closely watching for any revision, with an upward adjustment potentially calming recession fears. However, confirmation of the negative print could support further USD downside and rekindle policy easing speculation.

Thursday, June 26 – 15:30
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
With the labor market showing mixed signals, jobless claims remain a key proxy for employment trends. A sustained rise above the 240K level would likely signal cooling labor conditions, boosting expectations of Fed rate cuts by September.

Friday, June 27 – 15:30
U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)
Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure rose just 0.1% in April, supporting the case for policy patience. Should May’s print remain similarly soft, markets may interpret it as confirmation that disinflation is back on track, likely pushing yields lower and lifting risk assets.

Friday, June 27 – 15:30
U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May)
Previous: 2.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Annual core PCE inflation has steadily edged toward the Fed’s 2% target. A further decline in May would reinforce dovish bets and pressure the U.S. dollar, while a surprise uptick may revive hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials heading into July.