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6 August 2025,06:39
Daily Market Analysis
6 August 2025, 06:39
*Markets have priced in a rate reduction, driven by weak retail sales, a cooling labour market, and sluggish GDP, which have anchored the pound’s recent softness.
*A stronger-than-expected UK PMI and trade benefits from the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariff policy have introduced upside risks to growth expectations.
The Bank of England is set to announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow, with the British pound bracing for potential volatility. Markets have largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting expectations driven by softening macroeconomic indicators.
Recent data—including weaker retail sales, a cooling labour market, and subdued GDP growth—has reinforced a dovish narrative. As a result, the pound has been trading with a softer tone against major peers in anticipation of the rate move.
However, a surprise beat in the UK’s latest PMI reading has introduced some nuance, suggesting pockets of resilience in the domestic economy. In addition, the UK has emerged as one of the key beneficiaries of Washington’s revised tariff regime, enjoying reduced trade friction under the so-called “Liberation Day” policy. This has eased near-term growth concerns tied to global trade disruptions.
Should the BoE follow through with a rate cut, the market reaction may be muted given the move is already priced in. Conversely, a hold in rates would defy consensus and likely trigger a sharp rebound in the pound, as traders reassess the central bank’s policy trajectory.
The GBP/USD pair remains entrenched in a broader downtrend, having declined approximately 3.5% from its recent peak near the 1.3800 level. However, price action has recently stabilized, with the pair rebounding off the 1.3140 support zone and currently trading sideways near resistance at 1.3320.
While the overall structure still favors the bears, a decisive break above the 1.3320 resistance could signal a potential bullish reversal in the short term. Momentum indicators offer mixed signals—RSI has recovered from oversold territory but remains capped below the neutral 50 level, suggesting lingering downside pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD is edging toward a bullish crossover above the zero line, which, if confirmed, would strengthen the case for a trend reversal.
Traders will be watching for a breakout from the current consolidation range to determine the next directional move, particularly ahead of key macro catalysts such as the upcoming BoE rate decision.
Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3535
Support level: 1.3160, 1.3000
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