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11 August 2025,05:48
Daily Market Analysis
11 August 2025, 05:48
Key Takeaways:
*Trump–Putin Alaska summit on August 15 raises hopes for a ceasefire and potential easing of Russian oil sanctions, pressuring prices.
*Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries disrupt fuel output, adding a supply risk premium despite broader bearish sentiment.
*Persistent underinvestment in upstream capacity limits global supply flexibility, keeping volatility elevated ahead of the U.S. CPI data.
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices extended their decline this week, with Brent drifting toward the mid-$60s and WTI holding near $63 as markets weighed geopolitical developments against persistent supply-side challenges. Sentiment received a modest boost from reports that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, a move that has stoked speculation of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and the easing of sanctions on Russian crude. Such an outcome could release significant supply onto global markets, reinforcing the recent bearish tone.
However, the downside remains tempered by ongoing disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on key refineries, including deep inside the Komi Republic and Saratov. These attacks have curtailed regional fuel production, underscoring the fragility of supply lines and adding a layer of risk premium to the market. On a structural level, years of underinvestment in upstream projects continue to cap the industry’s capacity for quick supply expansion, with banks scaling back energy financing and private capital demanding higher returns.
In the near term, attention turns to U.S. inflation data, with Tuesday’s CPI release expected to influence demand expectations via its impact on Federal Reserve policy. A softer print could revive hopes for improved consumption, while a hawkish Fed stance would likely keep prices rangebound between $60 and $70. Until greater clarity emerges on both geopolitical negotiations and macroeconomic trends, oil markets are expected to remain volatile and headline-driven.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil (USOIL) continues to trade under pressure, last seen near $63.47 after failing to reclaim the $64.55 resistance level. The commodity has been in a steady downtrend since peaking near $69.30 in late July, with the 20-period SMA crossing below the 200-period SMA shows a bearish “death cross” reinforcing the downside bias. Price action is now hovering just above key support at $62.70, with a deeper floor at $60.15.
Momentum indicators are firmly bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 35, just above oversold territory, suggesting that sellers still hold control but a potential short-term bounce could occur if the level dips further. The MACD remains in negative territory with both lines below zero and moving sideways, reflecting a lack of bullish momentum and continued bearish sentiment. Trading volume has been relatively muted during the latest decline, which could indicate sellers are cautious near current support levels.
Overall, the technical picture remains tilted to the downside with the moving average setup and momentum indicators favoring further weakness, although proximity to key support could lead to short-term corrective bounces before any sustained move lower.
Resistance Levels: 64.55, 66.65
Support Levels: 62.70, 60.15
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