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11 August 2025,05:44
Daily Market Analysis
11 August 2025, 05:44
Key Takeaways:
*Gold retreats from record highs as dollar strength and easing geopolitical tensions dampen safe-haven demand.
*Trump’s tariffs on Swiss gold bars spark supply disruptions and premium spikes, despite partial White House pushback.
*Steady PBOC purchases and tightening long-term supply keep bullish bias intact ahead of U.S. CPI and China trade talks.
Gold prices have eased from recent record highs above $3,530/oz to around $3,380 as a firmer U.S. dollar and easing geopolitical tensions have tempered safe-haven demand. Market focus remains fixed on the Trump administration’s unexpected tariff measures targeting one-kilo Swiss gold bars, a move that briefly disrupted supply channels and lifted premiums for U.S. buyers. While some reports of these tariffs were later walked back by the White House, the uncertainty surrounding their final scope has kept investors cautious.
Structural support for gold remains intact, driven by steady central bank demand particularly from the People’s Bank of China, which has extended its buying streak into a ninth consecutive month. At the same time, declining global gold discoveries point to tightening long-term supply fundamentals. On the macro side, expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year continue to underpin non-yielding assets, providing a counterbalance to short-term headwinds from dollar strength.
Looking ahead, the market’s next major catalysts are Tuesday’s U.S. CPI release and the August 12 deadline for trade talks between Washington and Beijing. Softer inflation data could bolster expectations of a Fed policy pivot, while renewed trade tensions could reignite safe-haven flows. With these factors in play, gold remains poised for renewed gains toward the $3,400–$3,500 range by year-end, even as near-term trading stays choppy.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD, H4:
Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering just below the $3,400 handle, last seen near $3,374 after facing rejection from the $3,400 resistance zone. The metal has been consolidating in a tight range between $3,374 and $3,400 over the past sessions, forming a sideways channel after a strong rally from the $3,320 support.
Momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58, still holding in bullish territory but slipping from recent highs, indicating waning buying pressure. The MACD remains above the zero line, but the histogram has flattened and the MACD line is crossing slightly below the signal line, signaling that bullish momentum is losing steam.
Overall, while gold remains in a constructive posture above key moving averages, the consolidation pattern suggests a breakout is imminent. Traders may watch for a clear move beyond the $3,400–$3,362 range to determine the next directional bias.
Resistance Levels: 3400.00, 3435.25
Support Levels: 3362.25, 3320.00
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