All Eyes on the BoE, Services Data, and U.S. Labor as August Kicks Off

The Week Ahead: Week of August 4, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
After a data-heavy end to July, markets shift focus to the Bank of England’s rate decision, the health of the U.S. services sector, and fresh jobless claims data. With July’s payrolls report showing a deceleration in hiring and core PCE ticking lower, hopes for a dovish Fed pivot into year-end are building but far from guaranteed.

Across the Atlantic, the BoE must weigh easing inflation against signs of economic fragility. Meanwhile, U.S. 10- and 30-year bond auctions will serve as a litmus test for investor confidence in the soft-landing narrative. As summer volumes stay thin, any surprises this week could provoke sharp price swings across currencies, yields, and equities.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, August 5 – 16:45
S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
Previous: 52.9 | Forecast: 55.2
The U.S. services sector is expected to show continued expansion in July, with the S&P Global Services PMI forecast to rise to 55.2. This would mark a solid improvement in business activity, pointing to resilient consumer demand. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce optimism around U.S. economic growth and push back against expectations of near-term Fed easing. However, any downside surprise may raise concerns about service-sector momentum heading into Q3.

Tuesday, August 5 – 17:00
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Previous: 50.8
Markets will be watching for confirmation that U.S. services activity remains in expansion territory. A print above 52 could support the case for stable growth despite rising unemployment, while a downside surprise would amplify concerns following last week’s soft labor data.

Tuesday, August 5 – 17:00
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul)
Previous: 67.5
Service-sector input prices remain a key area of inflation persistence. A sustained high reading would suggest price pressures aren’t abating as quickly as hoped potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut. A lower print could validate the recent cooling seen in the June Core PCE report.

Wednesday, August 6 – 20:00
10-Year Note Auction
Previous: 4.362%
With long-end yields inching higher amid heavy Treasury issuance, this auction will be closely watched for signs of demand strain. A weak bid-to-cover ratio or rising tail would likely push yields up further and challenge risk sentiment, particularly in rate-sensitive tech and housing sectors.

Thursday, August 7 – 14:00
BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
Previous: 4.25%
The Bank of England is expected to hold steady amid signs of waning inflation and weak consumer demand. June CPI cooled more than expected, but with services inflation and wage growth still elevated, the BoE may keep the door open for another hike or at least delay cuts. Traders will parse Governor Bailey’s tone for signals on whether easing could begin in Q4 or be pushed into 2026.

Thursday, August 7 – 15:30
Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 221K
After July’s payroll data showed the slowest job growth in over a year (147K), initial claims will be watched closely for signs of rising labor market slack. A move above 230K would reinforce the view that hiring is cooling and potentially accelerate Fed rate-cut pricing into late 2025.

Thursday, August 7 – 20:00
30-Year Bond Auction
Previous: 4.889%
This long-dated issuance comes amid growing concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and softening economic momentum. Demand will be a barometer for investor faith in long-term monetary policy credibility. A soft auction could weigh on the dollar and spark equity volatility.

Friday, August 8 – 12:00
Germany Industrial Production MoM (Jun)
Previous: -2.5%
German industrial output has been under pressure due to weak global demand and domestic energy costs. A third consecutive monthly decline could deepen concerns about stagflation in the Eurozone’s largest economy and add pressure on the ECB to pivot sooner.

Friday, August 8 – 15:30
U.S. Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jun, final)
Previous (prelim): 0.5%
Inventories have been rising steadily as demand cools, particularly in durable goods. A surprise downward revision may ease fears of overstocking and support Q3 growth forecasts, while an upside revision could signal weaker consumption dynamics ahead.