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14 February 2025,02:00
Weekly Outlook
14 February 2025, 02:00
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its interest rate at a 12-year high of 4.35% for the ninth consecutive meeting in December. However, the central bank softened its hawkish stance, hinting at a potential dovish shift. With inflation easing, the RBA is expected to begin a brief series of rate cuts, starting with a 25-basis-point reduction to 4.10% on Tuesday, according to most economists in a Reuters poll. As a result, investors are eagerly anticipating the RBA’s next move, whether it will begin cutting rates or at least maintain its current stance in the upcoming meeting.
In November, New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates for the third time in four months, lowering them by half a percentage point to 4.25%, in line with economists’ expectations. Notably, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signaled the possibility of further easing, including a likely half-point rate cut in February, as inflation moderated toward the bank’s target. Additionally, a slight decline in economic growth and easing inflation has reduced the need for policymakers to keep rates at restrictive levels for an extended period.As a result, the RBNZ is widely expected to cut interest rates, though the possibility of holding at the current rate has not been ruled out.
With the government facing economic pressure, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) eased to 2.5%, down from 2.6% in November, indicating a slower pace of price increases. This movement in CPI is closely watched by policymakers and economists, as it plays a key role in shaping the Bank of England’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions. The December figures offered valuable insights into the UK’s economic health and inflationary trends as the year ends. Now, investors anticipate further stability in CPI, though no major changes are expected compared to the previous month’s reading.
In January, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged, pausing its recent trend of policy easing as it assesses the challenging political and economic landscape ahead. As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its overnight borrowing rate within the 4.25%-4.5% range. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a full percentage point. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank would need to see real progress on inflation or signs of weakness in the labor market before considering any adjustments. Therefore, investors are closely watching the meeting minutes for insights into Fed members’ discussions to better gauge the central bank’s next move.
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